A Motley Fool analyst predicts gold will climb back above $5,000 an ounce before the end of 2026, betting that Fed rate uncertainty, ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, and midterm election risk will push investors toward safety. He points to the SPDR Gold Shares ETF as a way to gain exposure if that rebound happens.
A prediction built on stock market risk
Gold touched record highs above $5,000 per ounce earlier this year before falling sharply, but Motley Fool contributor David Jagielski believes the metal will climb back to those levels before the year is out. His case rests less on gold itself than on the risks he sees facing stocks.
The S&P 500 has hit new records this year, but Jagielski argues the rally looks vulnerable after three consecutive years of above-average returns. Investors tend to buy gold when they worry about stocks or the broader economy, and he sees several reasons for that worry building.
Fed policy, Iran talks and midterms cloud the outlook
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has not offered guidance on interest rates. However, Jagielski says that if Warsh holds to a 2% inflation target without compromise, interest rates are likely to rise this year — a headwind for stocks. The ongoing challenges the U.S. and Iran face in reaching a deal could also keep oil prices and inflation elevated, and uncertainty around this year's midterm elections gives investors a further reason to seek safety, he says.
A gold ETF as the entry point
Rather than buying physical gold, Jagielski points to the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which trades under the ticker GLD. The fund rose to a new 52-week high when gold rallied earlier this year. It now trades near $403, with $142 billion in assets and a 0.40% expense ratio.
Source: Fool
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