Marvell Technology shares reversed an early slide to jump as much as 10% on Tuesday after the chipmaker unveiled sharply higher long-term revenue and profit targets at its investor day. CEO Matt Murphy pointed to a $400 billion addressable market by 2030. Raymond James reiterated its Strong Buy rating on the stock.
Marvell Technology stock briefly fell 3% as its investor day opened, then reversed course to climb as much as 10% before settling up 6%. The swing followed a round of long-term financial targets that came in well above Wall Street's existing estimates.
CEO Matt Murphy told investors Marvell now sees a $400 billion total addressable market by 2030. To chase that opportunity, the company raised its fiscal 2028 revenue target to $20 billion, above consensus estimates of $18.2 billion and its own prior fiscal 2027 forecast of $12.05 billion. Data center revenue alone is expected to approach roughly $18 billion in that fiscal year.
Management then went further out, introducing a fiscal 2031 revenue framework of $70 billion to $90 billion alongside a target of $30 or more in earnings per share. That midpoint and EPS goal sit far above Street estimates of about $47 billion in revenue and roughly $19 in EPS.
Connectivity, not custom chips, drove the upgrade
Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold wrote that Marvell "substantially raises the ceiling on its AI opportunity," and reiterated his Strong Buy rating following the event. He said the incremental roughly $2 billion added to Marvell's fiscal 2028 outlook is coming from strength in scale-out optics, scale-up optics and switching, not from an immediate acceleration in custom silicon.
Marvell now describes itself as a "connectivity first" company. At the $80 billion midpoint of its fiscal 2031 framework, the company projects interconnect revenue of about $37.5 billion, custom compute near $30 billion, switching and storage around $10 billion, and communications and other revenue of roughly $2.4 billion.
Custom silicon pipeline still expanding
Even with connectivity in the spotlight, Marvell's custom chip business is growing faster than previously assumed. Management raised its fiscal 2029 custom revenue target to $12 billion or more, up from a prior $10 billion goal and above Raymond James's roughly $9.1 billion estimate.
Leopold said that business is diversifying into "XPU Attach" products spanning network interface cards, memory expansion, storage, AI infrastructure management and inference acceleration. Management expects one to two attach sockets per XPU at an average selling price near $1,000. The analyst also noted that Marvell's custom silicon agreement with Google is only partially reflected in the fiscal 2031 framework, leaving room for further upside as deployments scale.
Hitting those multi-year targets will require sustained acceleration from Marvell's fiscal 2026 revenue base of $8.2 billion. CFO Dan Durn told investors the global AI infrastructure buildout continues at massive scale and speed, underpinning long-term demand for the company's custom compute and optical networking components.
Source: Investing.com
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