The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its July Employment Situation report on August 7, with economists penciling in 80,000 to 100,000 new jobs after June's 57,000 print. ADP's private-payrolls read came in well below that range, setting up a report that could either steady or deepen concerns about the labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its July Employment Situation report on August 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting job growth between 80,000 and 100,000. That range would mark an improvement over June's total of just 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, when the unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
Forecasts point to a modest rebound
Consensus estimates from FactSet and Dow Jones call for the unemployment rate to stay flat at 4.2% even as payroll growth picks up. Revelio Labs, which publishes its own labor statistics ahead of the official release, projected 79,200 jobs added in July, close to the bottom of that range. The firm expects health care, social assistance, and manufacturing to drive most of the month's gains, while leisure, hospitality, and retail trade are projected to post declines.
ADP's weaker read complicates the picture
ADP's National Employment Report offered a more cautious signal. Private-sector employment rose by 44,000 jobs in July, well below economist expectations. Year-over-year pay growth came in at 4.4%.
Context matters here, too. The US economy needs to add roughly 100,000 jobs a month just to absorb new entrants into the workforce, so even a print at the top of the consensus range would only keep pace with population growth.
What a beat or miss means for markets
A print near the top of the range would likely support the case that the labor market has slowed without breaking down. A miss near or below ADP's 44,000 figure, however, would likely amplify recession concerns. The unemployment rate remains the secondary figure to watch: at 4.2%, it sits at a level the Fed has said is broadly consistent with a balanced labor market.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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