Rystad Energy estimates that global LNG importers will spend at least $39 billion more in 2026, even as they buy 60.7 million tonnes less. Europe takes the largest hit, while East Asia's oil-linked contracts limit its exposure.
Global LNG importers will spend at least $39 billion more on contracted and spot supplies in 2026, Rystad Energy estimates, despite purchasing 60.7 million tonnes less. Disruptions to Qatari and UAE exports through the Strait of Hormuz are forcing buyers to secure replacement volume at higher prices.
Total portfolio costs are expected to reach $256 billion, up 18% from a pre-war estimate. Exposure differs by region, depending on contract coverage, pricing benchmarks and the ability to cut demand.
Europe's spot reliance drives the biggest increase
Rystad's modeling assumes Qatari and UAE LNG deliveries stay unavailable from March through the end of 2026. Under that scenario, global LNG portfolio costs rise from $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion.
Europe's bill rises by a minimum of $12 billion, or 18%, even as demand falls by 24 million tonnes. The region also stands to lose 20.6 million tonnes of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG scheduled for delivery in 2026.
Europe's exposure traces to its reliance on the spot market. It buys around 65% of its LNG there, and its average price is up 47%.
East Asia's oil-linked contracts cushion the blow
East Asia fares better because spot purchases account for just 14.5% of imports. Rystad research shows that 82% of the region's long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil, whose price has risen far less than spot LNG.
As a result, East Asia faces the smallest relative increase in LNG costs among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7%, despite having the largest nominal exposure to Gulf contracts.
Supply security matters as much as price
Christoph Halser, senior analyst at Rystad, says diversifying pricing benchmarks can help manage costs but does not guarantee physical supply. Rystad also notes that rising feedgas requirements from US LNG terminals, alongside power-sector demand, could support Henry Hub prices in the US natural gas market.
Source: Oilprice.com (Rystad Energy)
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