The IEA's monthly price tracker, updated Aug. 7 and covering data through July, shows diesel running about 14% above pre-war levels even as crude oil retreated from its spring peak. Gasoline has cooled from its May high, but Russian refinery strikes and stalled Strait of Hormuz talks keep squeezing diesel supply specifically.
Diesel is the fuel that refuses to cool down. The IEA's latest end-use price tracker puts the average per-liter cost of automotive diesel across the economies it monitors near $1.94, about 14% above where it stood in February, before the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran began. That figure is higher than June's, even as crude oil kept sliding through most of the summer.
Gasoline, by contrast, has calmed down. The average pump price peaked near $1.99 a liter in May and has since eased to $1.90, roughly flat month over month.
Crude pulls back, but Hormuz risk lingers
The split traces back to Feb. 28, when U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader and triggered a war that sent Brent crude soaring from around $72 a barrel to nearly $120 within weeks, the sharpest one-month jump for the benchmark since the 1990 Gulf War. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil, all but stopped as insurers pulled coverage.
Brent has since traded near $88 a barrel this week, down from its spring highs but still up more than 30% from a year ago. J.P. Morgan expects Brent to average $86 in the third quarter and drift toward $78 by year-end, assuming the war doesn't flare up again. Iran and Oman are still negotiating the terms of a full Hormuz reopening, and a June 17 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran collapsed within days over shipping-route disputes.
Germany's tax discount expires, Russia's refineries take drone hits
Germany's diesel and gasoline prices each jumped more than 10% in July. Berlin's temporary fuel-tax discount, worth nearly 17 cents a liter, expired June 30. Poland saw an even sharper jump, while pump prices actually fell in the U.K., Ireland, Sweden and Cyprus.
Diesel's stubbornness also reflects tighter distillate supply. Ukraine has hit Russian refineries with drone strikes at least 30 times in July alone, pushing Russian crude oil processing rates to a 24-year low and triggering fuel rationing in roughly 90% of the country's regions. In the U.S., the IEA figures put diesel at roughly $4.96 a gallon in July and gasoline at $3.93, both still well above year-ago levels of $3.78 and $3.12.
Source: Oilprice.com
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