Gulf crude and condensate exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, matching the prewar average, but only 60% of that oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz compared with 83% before the war. Producers are increasingly routing supply around the strait through pipelines and offshore ship-to-ship transfers, a shift analysts say has weakened Iran's leverage over the chokepoint without restoring normal trade.
Exports recover, but the route has changed
At least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude left the Persian Gulf region between September 1 and 28, matching the prewar average once Iranian exports are excluded, according to commodity analytics firm Kpler. The volume recovery masks a deeper change in how that oil actually moves.
Before the war, 83% of the region's crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In September, 40% bypassed the strait entirely, moving instead through pipelines and other routes via Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. About 60%, or 9.9 million barrels per day, still physically crossed Hormuz.
Workarounds remain costly
The crude oil that does cross Hormuz increasingly changes hands offshore before reaching buyers. Kpler said more than 70% of the crude that crossed the strait in August transferred tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman, far from normal commercial shipping practice. Most vessels transiting the strait also receive U.S. naval support.
Ellen R. Wald, an energy markets analyst, told RFE/RL that Iran's ability and/or will to attack ships in the Gulf is declining, letting vessels transit under U.S. military cover. But she cautioned that the rebound in flows should not be mistaken for a return to normalcy. According to RFE/RL: "This is not a return to normal", Wald said, pointing to the risks and costs still carried by shippers.
Iran's leverage erodes, but doesn't disappear
Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the current level of traffic was already too much for Tehran and unacceptable to authorities there. Yet Tehran never formally controlled the strait — its leverage rested on making passage dangerous enough that shippers weighed the risk themselves.
Wald said the continued threat to vessels, elevated insurance costs, and dependence on U.S. military protection mean a war premium remains embedded in oil prices, even as flows recover. Ghaedi added he doesn't expect Iran to target regional energy infrastructure directly, warning that narratives portraying Tehran as powerless over Hormuz could themselves risk provoking an escalation.
Source: Oilprice.com
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