Gold futures broke above $4,400 an ounce after a shockingly weak July jobs report cut the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The US economy shed 23,000 jobs against a forecast 85,000 gain, and heavy downward revisions to May and June deepened the surprise. Silver climbed alongside gold, and Wall Street banks have already lifted their price targets.
Gold futures broke above $4,400 per ounce on Friday. The move followed a July nonfarm payrolls report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs, against expectations for an 85,000 gain.
A Payrolls Report That Broke the Week's Stalemate
The headline miss was only part of the story. May payrolls were revised down from 129,000 to 63,000, and June from 57,000 to just 20,000, wiping a combined 103,000 jobs off prior reports.
Average hourly earnings growth slowed too, easing from 0.3% to 0.1% month-over-month. The unemployment rate also dipped, falling from 4.2% to 4.1%, though a drop in participation from 61.5% to 61.4% made that improvement look less reassuring.
Gold Clears $4,300 and Keeps Climbing
Gold had stalled below $4,300 earlier in the week, a level marking the 38.2% retracement of its decline from $4,889.24 to $3,942.23, near $4,303.98. The jobs shock gave it a fresh catalyst, and the metal accelerated above $4,350. It then pushed past $4,400.
Before the report, gold had spent early August oscillating roughly between $4,067 and $4,359, a range the jobs data broke to the upside. Silver moved in tandem, surging toward $65 in the same session.
Rate-Cut Bets and Wall Street Targets
Markets cut the odds of a September Fed hike to around 42%, undercutting the hawkish case Fed officials Kashkari and Musalem had argued for earlier in the week. Gold now trades above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the next resistance near the Fibonacci 0.50-0.618 zone.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have both raised their 2026 gold forecasts, with targets ranging from $4,500 to as high as $6,300 depending on the institution and the scenario. Morgan Stanley has taken a similarly bullish stance.
Central bank gold buying has continued for several consecutive years as reserve managers hedge against dollar-denominated risk.
Sources: ActionForex, Investing.com, Crypto Briefing
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