Gold has rebounded from a recent pullback into the $3,900–$4,100 range and is now testing resistance near $4,400. A market analysis published on Investing.com argues the metal's next target is the $4,900–$5,000 zone, pointing to a jump in oil prices, war-related supply strain, and government debt as the real drivers — not Fed rate expectations.
Gold rallies as oil jumps $4 a barrel
Gold has climbed back from a recent buy zone at $3,900–$4,100 and is now testing resistance in the $4,400 area, according to the analysis. It notes that stochastics on the daily chart are becoming overbought at that level.
The rebound coincided with a sharp move in energy markets: oil surged $4 a barrel, and gold rose alongside it, the analysis says. It links the strength in both markets to strain on US oil reserves and the pace of the country's military effort in Iran, rather than to shifting interest-rate expectations.
Miners surge alongside gold's climb
Gold mining stocks have moved even further than the metal itself. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has surged about 28% in just a few weeks, per the analysis, which also flags a bull-wedge pattern forming on the S&P/TSX Venture Composite index. Because stochastics and RSI on GDX are now both overbought, the analysis suggests some investors may book partial profits on positions bought at the lower buy zone.
Inflation data looms with gold at resistance
The CPI and PPI inflation reports are due for release over the following two days, and the analysis expects commentary tying inflation data to Fed rate-hike expectations to resurface if the numbers come in higher. It argues any resulting dip in metals this week is likely to be short-lived, with the $4,900–$5,000 zone remaining the target for gold's current base pattern.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
