Gold has broken above the $4,252 VC PMI pivot after rallying from a $4,074 low, turning the $4,240-$4,252 zone into support and putting $4,381 and $4,458 into focus as the next upside targets. The primary trend stays bullish above $4,240-$4,252, though a slide below that zone would raise the odds of a pullback toward $4,175.
Gold trades near $4,317 after a sharp advance off its recent low. That low touched $4,074, and the rally has since pushed through a series of VC PMI resistance levels, showing buyers back in short-term control of the move.
VC PMI levels in play
The VC PMI Daily Mean, now sitting at $4,252, has become the market's main short-term pivot. With price above that mean, the structure favors buying dips over selling into strength. The advance has already cleared Weekly Sell 2 at $4,240, turning the $4,240-$4,252 band into a fresh support zone.
Above current levels, Daily Sell 1 at $4,381 is the next statistical target. A close above that level would open the door to Daily Sell 2 at $4,458. From there, the advance could accelerate toward the $4,450-$4,500 region.
On a pullback, $4,252 and $4,240 are the first levels to watch. A deeper retreat could reach Weekly Sell 1 at $4,173 and Daily Buy 1 at $4,175. Major lower support sits at the Weekly Mean of $4,114, followed by Daily Buy 2 at $4,046, Weekly Buy 1 at $4,047 and Weekly Buy 2 at $3,988.
Cycle windows and Square of Nine
The advance suggests gold may be shifting from a completed short-term cycle low into an expanding bullish cycle. The August 5-8 window should show whether that shift confirms or the vertical run-up loses steam. Beyond that, the next cycle windows fall around August 19-22 and into an early-September 30-day window.
From a Gann Square of Nine perspective, the $4,300 region carries added psychological and geometric weight. Price action between $4,320 and $4,381 should decide whether the move consolidates or extends into another leg higher. A breakout through $4,381 would strengthen the odds of testing the $4,458-$4,500 resistance cluster.
Outlook
The primary trend stays bullish above $4,240-$4,252. The outlook advises against chasing a nearly vertical advance, favoring controlled corrections into VC PMI support instead. Holding $4,252 favors $4,381, followed by $4,458. A failure below $4,240 would raise the odds of a retracement toward $4,175.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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