A former federal prosecutor says the CLARITY Act has stalled on Capitol Hill after a week of meetings with lawmakers, just ahead of the Senate's cloture vote. Sen. Cynthia Lummis warns that missing this Congress could push comprehensive crypto market structure legislation back to 2030, while prediction markets show sharply falling odds of passage.
Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti says the CLARITY Act's momentum in Congress has run out. After meeting with members of Congress and congressional staff throughout the week, Mariotti posted his conclusions on X: According to Mariotti: "CLARITY is dead. Congress is entering a post-CLARITY era."
Mariotti Ties the Bill's Troubles to a Prediction-Markets Case
Mariotti said that attitude was common among people involved in the legislative process. He linked the obstacles facing the bill to the Ninth Circuit case involving prediction markets like Kalshi, along with New Jersey's attempt to appeal that case to the U.S. Supreme Court.
His comments follow those of Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who raised similar doubts about the legislation's prospects two weeks earlier. As a result, doubt over the CLARITY Act's future has grown, along with its chances of moving forward on prediction markets.
Lummis Says the Next Window Is 2030
Sen. Cynthia Lummis again urged Congress to bring the bill up for consideration before this Congress ends. She warned that without action now, the next real opportunity for comprehensive crypto market structure legislation would not come until 2030, calling that a loss of years of jobs, investment, and tax revenue.
Congress faces a short legislative session. The House is expected to leave Washington on Sept. 17, just two days before the Senate's cloture vote. If the Senate adopts an amended version, House members would have limited time to weigh the changes before departing.
Confidence in prediction markets is also fading. Polymarket now puts the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 13% to 18%. That is a steep drop from over 80% earlier this year. Kalshi has similarly given the Senate low odds of clearing the threshold.
The cloture motion needs 60 votes to move to debate. With 50 Republicans in the Senate, at least seven Democrats would need to join them for the bill to advance.
Source: CoinGape
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