EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1323 appears to have topped out at 1.1710 after last week's decline, and the pair has turned sideways. Near-term risk stays tilted to the downside while 1.1565 holds as resistance, but the bigger and long-term pictures still frame the move as a correction within larger uptrends.
EUR/USD's slide last week suggests the rebound from 1.1323 has completed at 1.1710, according to ActionForex's weekly technical analysis. The pair struggled to sustain a break below the 61.8% retracement of that range at 1.1471, then turned sideways.
Initial bias is neutral this week as the pair consolidates. Near-term risk stays tilted to the downside as long as 1.1565 support-turned-resistance holds; a break below 1.1453 would target the 1.1323 low.
In the bigger picture, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0176-to-1.2081 range at 1.1353 remains intact, so price action from 1.2081 is viewed as a corrective pattern within the larger uptrend from 1.0176, the 2025 low. A break of 1.2081 is expected only after this correction completes. However, a sustained break of 1.1353 would raise the chance of a medium-term trend reversal.
Long term, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.6039-to-0.9534 range sits at 1.2019, close to the 1.2000 psychological level, and is key for the outlook. Rejection at this level keeps the multi-decade downtrend from 1.6039, the 2008 high, intact and the outlook neutral at best. However, a decisive break of 1.2000/1.2019 would suggest a long-term bullish trend reversal targeting the 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
Source: ActionForex
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