Euro-area finance ministers met in Dublin on September 18 to weigh an emergency session on energy costs after Brent crude pushed past $100 a barrel. JPMorgan has told clients it has no baseline price forecast for crude, and euro-area inflation has already climbed to 3.2%.
Euro-area finance ministers gathered in Dublin on September 18 to confront energy prices spiraling with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel, with winter approaching. Officials are now weighing an emergency meeting to coordinate a policy response before cold weather deepens the strain.
The informal Dublin session, chaired by Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis, centered on the effects of the price spike on households, businesses, and national budgets across the euro area.
What's driving the surge
Supply disruptions tied to strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — a critical artery moving Saudi crude to Red Sea export terminals — have pushed prices past the $100 mark, against the broader backdrop of Middle East conflict. On top of that, the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows, has been severely disrupted by the US-Iran war. Supply losses tied to tanker restrictions are estimated at approximately 10 million barrels per day.
JPMorgan can't put a number on it
On September 17, JPMorgan's oil analysts told clients they have no baseline price forecast for crude, citing the prolonged conflict that has scrambled their models. JPMorgan's analysts wrote: "We simply don't know how to model the endgame"
Brent has averaged around $94 a barrel since fighting began, while mid-September spot prices traded between $103 and $106. JPMorgan pegs Brent's fair value at around $90 a barrel, putting the current war premium at roughly $16. Yet prices haven't gone vertical, because global oil consumption is running about 4.4 million barrels per day below year-ago levels.
Inflation risk piles up
The euro area's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July. Energy prices feed into transportation costs, manufacturing inputs, and food production, and the European Central Bank, which spent years steering inflation back toward its 2% target, is watching the trend closely.
In Dublin, ministers discussed VAT adjustments on fuel, targeted subsidies, and windfall taxes on energy companies profiting from the surge. French President Emmanuel Macron has pushed the conversation further, proposing a G7 meeting on joint releases of strategic petroleum reserves, a tool the group last used in 2022.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing (snippet-based)
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