Ether cracked $2,600 on Wednesday after six straight days of U.S. spot ETF outflows, and prediction markets now disagree sharply on what comes next. Myriad traders give ETH a 73.7% shot at $3,000 before $1,500, Polymarket calls a year-end $3,000 touch a near coin flip, and Kalshi's forecast sits just above today's price.
Ethereum's price spent the opening days of October holding just below $2,700. Then the floor gave way: ether cracked $2,600 on Wednesday morning and traded between roughly $2,550 and $2,580 through the afternoon. That drop has left prediction-market traders split on where the coin heads next.
Ether slides below $2,600
The session opened near $2,697 and briefly touched $2,700 before sellers took over. Intraday lows landed around $2,540 to $2,555, with ether down roughly 4.7% to 5.5% during the day, while 24-hour trading volume ran between about $15 billion and $19 billion.
U.S. spot ether ETFs had logged six consecutive days of redemptions, with roughly $405 million to $408 million leaving the funds during the streak. Coinglass data also placed ether long liquidations around $155 million to $165 million as the price buckled, and the $2,500 to $2,560 zone has become the market's near-term floor.
Polymarket calls $3,000 a coin flip
Polymarket's "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?" contract has attracted about $17.3 million in volume. At a spot price around $2,565, traders assigned a 49% probability that ether reaches $3,000 before 2027, with the odds dropping to 20% for $3,500, 11% for $4,000 and just 4% for $5,000.
The downside book isn't carefree either. Polymarket gives ether a 37% chance of touching $2,250 and a 20% chance of hitting $2,000 before year-end, with a trip to $1,500 priced at 7%.
Myriad and Kalshi tell different stories
Myriad's ETH contract asks a different question entirely: whether ether reaches $3,000 or $1,500 first, with no fixed expiration date. Traders currently give the $3,000 outcome a 73.7% probability against 26.3% for $1,500, on a contract that has handled roughly $152,000 in volume. That figure isn't a contradiction of Polymarket's 49% — Myriad has no year-end deadline and asks which of two distant barriers gets hit first, while Polymarket asks whether specific prices print before Dec. 31.
Kalshi offers yet another lens. Its year-end ethereum market, carrying more than $12.1 million in volume, currently forecasts roughly $2,720, with visible brackets putting a 15.2% probability on a $2,250 to $2,499.99 finish and 13.6% on $2,500 to $2,749.99. Settlement comes from the average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD Real Time Index immediately before midnight EST on Jan. 1, 2027.
Ether has been knocked below $2,600 while one betting crowd leans toward $3,000 eventually, another calls a 2026 touch a toss-up, and Kalshi sits only modestly above today's price. Traders haven't lost faith in ethereum — they just can't agree on how much time it needs.
Source: Bitcoin News
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