Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 194 times since the start of 2026, pushing cumulative damage to nearly 43% of the country's refining capacity. The squeeze is compounding fresh US and EU sanctions on Moscow's oil exports, from a frozen price cap and a widened shadow-fleet crackdown to a Senate bill carrying tariffs of up to 500% on Russian energy goods.
Ukraine's drone campaign has struck Russian refineries at least 194 times since the start of 2026. Cumulative damage has reached nearly 43% of the country's entire operating refinery capacity, following a campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure that began in early 2024 and intensified into a deeper, more concentrated blitz starting in August 2025.
EU freezes its price cap, widens the shadow-fleet crackdown
The EU's 21st sanctions package, agreed on 23 July, froze its price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum exports at $44.10 a barrel for at least another year. That freeze headed off an increase of more than $10 a barrel that a scheduled review this month would otherwise likely have triggered.
Brussels also added 41 vessels to its shadow-fleet asset freeze list and, for the first time, extended its authority to sanction vessels that merely support blacklisted tankers through refuelling, towing or ship-to-ship transfers. Under the new rules, EU countries can confiscate and sell oil cargoes found aboard detained shadow-fleet vessels.
Senate advances tariffs on Russia's biggest oil buyers
On 28 July, the Senate voted 86-12 to advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The bill would let Washington impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five countries currently judged the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas — China, India, Turkey, Brazil and Azerbaijan. It would additionally impose tariffs of up to 500% on all goods imported directly from Russia, including oil, gas, LNG and coal, and bar new US investment in Russia's energy sector.
A shrinking cushion at home
The squeeze lands on an economy already under strain. Russia's central bank has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0-1%, after Rosstat data showed the economy contracted 0.2% in the first part of the year.
Russia's National Wealth Fund's liquid assets have fallen from 6.5% to just 1.8% of GDP. Former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, speaking at a recent Atlantic Council Eurasia Center forum, said: "Mr Putin will face a big problem by the end of this year".
A widening of conscription, as many observers expect, could follow elections scheduled for 18-20 September 2026, according to a source close to the EU's security establishment. The EU, meanwhile, is committed to ending all imports of Russian LNG by January 2027, natural gas by September 2027, and crude oil by December 2027.
Source: Oilprice.com
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