The dollar rose against most major currencies early Thursday, slipping only versus the Canadian dollar, as Federal Reserve officials sent mixed signals on the rate path ahead of Friday's jobs report. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled he could back a September hike if inflation data runs hot, while Mary Daly and Lisa Cook both favored holding rates steady for now. Separately, weekly jobless claims data pointed to a labor market that keeps cooling gradually rather than cracking.
The dollar climbed against every major currency but the Canadian dollar at the start of Thursday's North American session. A technical review released alongside the report covered the EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD as the three major pairs to watch, without detailing specific price levels for them.
USD/CHF led the advance, up 0.33% against the dollar. AUD/USD fell 0.28% over the same stretch. USD/CAD dipped 0.07%, marking the dollar's only loss among the majors.
Warsh keeps a steady hand, leaves door open to a hike
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to stick with his lean, less prescriptive communication approach despite recent criticism, according to a Financial Times report. He reportedly acknowledged mistakes during the first weeks of the new approach but does not see them as reason to reverse course.
Warsh would be open to raising rates in September if inflation data over the coming weeks runs hotter than expected and markets price in higher odds of a move. There is currently a 56% chance of a hike in September, with the next CPI print due next Wednesday.
Daly and Cook favor patience
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her support for holding rates steady in July while the Fed gathers more data, warning that tariffs, higher energy costs and rising AI investment have added to inflation, though tariff effects show early signs of fading. She added that an end to the Middle East conflict could ease price pressure by lowering energy costs.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook also backed holding rates unchanged last month, describing the economy as resilient with a still-strong labor market, even as consumer sentiment stays weak. Cook said inflation risks currently outweigh labor-market risks, cautioning that officials have limited room left to wait for disinflation to resume, though she added the Fed may not need to tighten further if price pressures keep cooling.
Jobless claims stay low as jobs report looms
Initial jobless claims rose to 199,000, below the 202,000 estimate, a sign layoffs remain historically limited even as hiring slows elsewhere. The four-week moving average fell to 198,750. Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.801 million in the week ended July 25.
Friday's July employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rising by about 85,000, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.2%. A reading close to expectations would likely keep the Fed's focus on inflation as it weighs a possible September rate hike.
Sources: Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed, Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed, ActionForex
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