Dell heads into Tuesday's earnings with analysts pointing to two AI deals — Nvidia's $500 billion financing platform and SpaceX's data-center build-out — as fresh tailwinds. Dell's stock is already up 265.6% this year, and Wall Street's debate has shifted from whether AI demand is real to how much hardware Dell can actually ship.
Nvidia's financing platform lifts the outlook
Nvidia's $500 billion financing platform with third-party capital to support frontier AI labs and other major players looks like a positive for Dell, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh said in a note to clients. He added that even a fraction of that amount could drive meaningful demand for AI infrastructure. Dell makes data-center servers built around central processing units, which are in high demand for agentic AI and inference workloads, and it also builds AI-optimized servers that support chips such as Nvidia's graphics processing units.
SpaceX's build-out adds 2027 upside
SpaceX's plan to deploy up to 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year may be optimistic, Rakesh wrote, but even a seven-gigawatt deployment could drive upside for Dell in 2027. He estimated that scale of build-out as a $200 billion-plus opportunity for Nvidia, since SpaceX has said it will buy chips exclusively from Nvidia. Nvidia and Dell already work together on enterprise-grade servers and racks for AI training and inference. Rakesh also noted that SpaceX's data-center capital expenditures could surpass those of Amazon and Google.
Dell's rally outpaces AI hardware peers
Dell's stock slipped fractionally on Monday but is up 265.6% so far this year. That tops Micron Technology, which has gained 229.3% on the year as memory-chip demand surges. It has also topped Seagate Technology and Western Digital, which are up 197% and 159% respectively as beneficiaries of the AI data-center build-out. Fellow server maker Super Micro Computer impressed Wall Street earlier this month with better-than-expected revenue and margin guidance, which Rakesh called a positive read for Dell.
Wall Street shifts focus to shipping capacity
The debate around Dell's stock has changed since its last earnings report, according to Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani. Investors once questioned how real AI-infrastructure demand was; now they are asking how much product Dell can ship. Dell posted a record $51.3 billion AI backlog last quarter and could recognize more upside if not for supply shortages, Daryanani said. He pointed to material capex raises and commentary from CoreWeave and SpaceX, which he called Dell's two largest customers. According to Daryanani, across the infrastructure field: "constraints are broadening rather than easing" — a dynamic he expects to worsen in 2027. He also expects strong results from Dell's storage business and its client-solutions group, which includes personal computers.
Dell is expected to report July-quarter revenue of $44.9 billion with adjusted earnings of $4.92 per share, up 112% from a year ago, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Its server and networking segment revenue is expected to grow almost 95% to $25.2 billion. For the October quarter, Wall Street forecasts adjusted earnings of $4.47 per share on revenue of $41.4 billion.
Source: MarketWatch
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