The crypto industry has spent over $170 million on the 2026 U.S. midterms, and who sits in Congress from January will shape its relationship with Washington for the next two years. Democrats appear likely to win the House, while the Senate could go either way.
Crypto's political spending in the 2026 election tops $170 million, mostly through the Fairshake political action committee and its affiliates. Election day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, and CoinDesk says the outcome will define the industry's relationship with Washington, D.C. over the next two years.
House flip seen as most likely outcome, Senate stays open
The most likely outcome as of Friday afternoon is that the House of Representatives will flip, according to CoinDesk. Cook Political Report projects Democrats will likely win the House and calls the Senate more of a tossup. Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are projecting Democratic control of both chambers.
Everyone the CoinDesk reporter asked said the Senate could go either way. Some states may still be counting ballots deep into next week, so the Senate result may not be known on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
PACs target Sherrod Brown's Senate bid
Fairshake and another PAC have put over $60 million into blocking former Senator Sherrod Brown's effort to return to the Senate. The PACs have also donated to a number of other races as companies prepare for 2027.
Ron Hammond, head of policy and advocacy at Wintermute, said the expectation is a lot of oversight but not necessarily a lot of legislation. Several House committees are likely to look at crypto company donations to the White House East Wing ballroom project, Trump's memecoin and World Liberty Financial, he said.
Market structure and tax bills may return in 2027
Taylor Barr, director of policy at Chainlink, said the industry's priority is still to get rules "written in pen and not pencil."
Congress will also likely look at a market structure bill, though Kevin Wysocki, head of policy at Anchorage Digital, said it will probably look different from the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that failed to advance out of the Senate last month. He expects a version tougher on decentralized finance and on vertical integration.
Tax legislation to eliminate de minimis taxes on small payments could see some action in the lame duck session, but is more likely to be taken up in 2027.
Crypto also remains a low priority for voters. CoinDesk reported in May that a survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters showed just 1% of respondents see it as a top issue.
Source: CoinDesk
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