Citi raised its price targets for corn, soybeans, and wheat, pointing to a strengthening Super El Niño as its top agricultural risk for late 2026 and early 2027. The bank says current market pricing captures only part of the potential downside to global crop production.
Citi lifted its 3-month corn price target to $5.40 per bushel and its 12-month target to $5.90 per bushel. The bank raised its 3-month soybean forecast to $12.75 per bushel after the previous target was reached, with a 12-month target of $13.25 per bushel. Wheat targets rose too, to $7.25 per bushel over three months and $7.75 per bushel over 12 months.
The revisions follow a NOAA update on the strength of the developing El Niño. The agency now assigns a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event, and a 69% probability that it exceeds every El Niño episode since 1950 during October-December, according to NOAA's August 2026 update.
Downside risk understated, Citi says
Citi said current market pricing appears to reflect only part of the potential downside to global agricultural production, based on its new Production-at-Risk framework. The bank named palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa, and Australian wheat as the most weather-exposed commodities, with risks concentrated across Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Brazil.
Several catalysts reinforce the bullish case, Citi said: lower yield estimates tied to weather and El Niño, strong export demand, Black Sea disruptions, fertilizer and energy prices, and global biofuel demand. A strong El Niño also threatens palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, which could pull demand toward soybean oil and, in turn, lift soybean prices through larger crush demand.
Wheat carries the most exposure
Citi said wheat remains the grain most exposed to the combination of weather and geopolitical risk. Hot, dry conditions across Europe have already cut wheat production estimates, adding to the pressure building from the El Niño outlook.
Source: Investing.com
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