China's National Bureau of Statistics releases its official August Purchasing Managers' Indices on Monday, with the manufacturing gauge expected to edge up to 49.6 from July's 49.2 while staying below the 50-point growth threshold. The report will show whether factory activity is stabilizing or whether China's broader slowdown is spreading beyond the property sector.
China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish its official August Purchasing Managers' Indices on Monday at 9:30am Beijing time (01:30 GMT), and the manufacturing reading will show whether a contraction that deepened sharply in July has started to ease.
A Reuters poll of 17 economists sets the consensus for the manufacturing PMI at 49.6, above July's 49.2 but still short of the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. July's print missed forecasts of 49.9 and fell 1.1 points from June's 50.3, with the weakness spreading across factories of every size rather than concentrating in one part of the sector.
Soft domestic demand and an ongoing property market slump have held second-quarter GDP growth to 4.3%, below the lower end of Beijing's 4.5% to 5% annual target. Manufacturing and exports have offset some of that drag, though, as a global boom in AI infrastructure investment lifts demand for China's high-tech goods even as the broader trade backdrop, including the fallout from the Middle East war, remains uncertain.
A reading at or above the 49.6 consensus would support the view that factory activity is stabilizing, but a miss would revive concerns that China's slowdown is broadening beyond property into manufacturing generally. NBS will also release the non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction and had fallen to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June, alongside a composite output index blending both measures.
Source: InvestingLive
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