Cardano trades near $0.207 after last week's more-than-8% drop, holding just above the $0.199-$0.200 zone that keeps its short-term structure intact. Derivatives data is mixed: the long-to-short ratio points to bearish positioning even as the funding rate turns mildly positive. ADA needs to defend $0.200 to avoid a slide toward $0.195, $0.173, or $0.150.
Cardano traded near the critical $0.200 support zone on Monday after declining more than 8% during the previous week. ADA remains above two short-term moving averages, but mixed derivatives data and sell-side pressure from large traders suggest recovery attempts could meet resistance higher up.
Long-to-short ratio signals bearish sentiment
CoinGlass data shows ADA's long-to-short ratio at 0.91, close to its lowest level in a month. A reading below one indicates traders hold more short positions than long, reflecting expectations of further weakness. However, Cardano's funding rate turned positive on Monday, reaching 0.0052%, meaning long-position holders are paying shorts — a sign some traders are positioning for a recovery.
The contrast between the bearish ratio and the positive funding rate points to uncertainty rather than a clear direction. CryptoQuant's market summary adds to the caution: large whale orders are appearing in ADA's futures market, but sell-side activity remains dominant.
Both spot and futures markets are showing signs of heating up, while several other indicators stay neutral. Together, these factors suggest volatility could rise around the current support area, and the dominance of large sell orders leaves Cardano exposed to further downside if buyers fail to defend $0.200.
ADA holds above key moving averages
ADA traded at approximately $0.207 on Monday, remaining slightly above its 50-day exponential moving average at $0.199 and its 100-day EMA at $0.200. Holding above these levels gives Cardano's short-term technical structure a mildly constructive tone despite the broader downward trend.
The Relative Strength Index stands at 50, indicating balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains slightly negative, showing bullish momentum has not yet strengthened enough to confirm a recovery. Cardano's immediate resistance sits at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.213; a move above that could open the path to the 61.8% retracement at $0.231.
Additional barriers sit at $0.236, the 200-day EMA near $0.240, and horizontal resistance at $0.245. ADA would need to break decisively through this cluster to improve its medium-term outlook, and a sustained move above $0.245 could bring the more distant $0.299 level into focus. Conversely, losing the 50-day and 100-day EMAs near $0.200 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.195, with a deeper correction targeting the structural supports at $0.173 and $0.150.
Source: CoinJournal
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