Canada's trade surplus jumped to C$4.2 billion in August as exporters rushed shipments to the US ahead of new tariffs, far outpacing what economists had expected. The Canadian dollar strengthened on the data, and analysts say a similar boost from diesel exports could repeat in September.
Canada's trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion ($2.94 billion) in August, Statistics Canada reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the surplus would expand to only C$1.55 billion from an upwardly revised C$787 million in July.
The Canadian dollar strengthened after the data, trading up 0.05% to C$1.4250 to the US dollar, or 70.18 US cents.
Exporters race to beat new US tariffs
Exporters shipped more goods south before President Donald Trump's new 50% tariffs, covering roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports, took effect on August 22. As a result, exports to the US surged 8.1% in August while imports fell 2.5%.
That shift lifted Canada's trade surplus with the US to C$11.2 billion, a 19-month high, pushing its share of exports to its biggest trading partner to almost 70% for the first time since September 2025. Economists said September will show a more accurate read on the tariffs, which cover wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing, fishing rods and hockey equipment, as well as the effect of Canadian counter-tariffs and Trump's ban on some Canadian goods.
Energy shipments drive the surplus
Canada's overall exports rose 2.5% in August to C$77.91 billion, after falling 2.6% the prior month. Energy products posted the biggest gain: refined petroleum and crude oil exports increased 4.7% to C$19.03 billion, with refined petroleum exports up 17.4% on higher diesel shipments to Peru, the UK, the US and the Netherlands.
Economists said refinery outages tied to the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis could keep diesel exports strong. According to Reuters: "diesel exports might be able to offset some of the impact of new tariffs", said Prince Owusu, senior economist at Export Development Canada. A stronger Canadian dollar also affected the value of exports.
Imports fall, non-US trade narrows
Excluding energy, exports were up 1.8%, and total export volume rose 2.5%. Consumer goods exports climbed 6.6%, industrial machinery and equipment rose 10.1%, and electronic and electrical equipment increased 11.0%. Imports, meanwhile, fell 2% to C$73.71 billion, with motor vehicles and parts posting the largest decline.
Trade with the rest of the world moved the other way. After rising 8.2% in July, exports to countries other than the US fell 8.5% in August, and its trade deficit with those countries widened to C$7.0 billion from C$5.3 billion in July.
Source: Investing.com
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