Oil prices are set for a 13-14% monthly increase as ICE Brent trends around $118 per barrel. Oilprice.com's Tom Kool points to rising Hormuz attacks and renewed US-Iran tensions, and says markets should brace for volatile sessions.
Oil prices are set for a 13-14% month-on-month increase as ICE Brent trends around $118 per barrel, with only several days left until the US midterm elections. Tom Kool of Oilprice.com writes that markets should brace for a set of extremely volatile trading sessions next week.
Kool's outlook for Brent rests on several signals. He cites rising numbers of Hormuz attacks, reported explosions at Iran's Jask port, reports of military repositioning and extremely bullish CTA positioning. Qatari and Pakistani mediation notwithstanding, he writes that everything is pointing towards a resumption in US-Iran hostilities in the upcoming weeks.
Tanker claims in Hormuz draw a US dispute
Iran's IRGC said three unidentified vessels struck naval mines, caught fire and were abandoned after using an "unauthorised" route and ignoring Tehran's warnings. However, US Centcom disputes claims that the strait's main shipping lane has been mined.
Europe and Gulf producers adjust supply
Meanwhile, EU governments will release 42 million barrels of strategic oil and product reserves over the next three months, half of it diesel. Saudi Aramco reportedly started offering discounted spot cargoes for October and November arrival to European buyers, seeking to maximize loadings through the Red Sea coast to avoid the Houthis.
ADNOC, for its part, has told clients that its second 1.5 million b/d pipeline to Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, would see first deliveries in early 2027.
US majors profit from refining
ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat analyst expectations for Q3 profits, cashing in $15.4 billion and $9.9 billion respectively. Exxon earned more from downstream than upstream for the first time in six years.
Source: Oilprice.com
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