Brent crude could climb to $100 a barrel within a week if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, according to B. Riley Wealth's Art Hogan. Other analysts are more cautious: Standard Chartered still expects Brent to average $85 a barrel through Q3.
Brent crude could reach $100 a barrel within a week if there is no resolution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Rigzone. WTI trades $10 lower than Brent but could follow a similar path over the next month, Hogan said, pointing to strategic petroleum reserves at historic lows and production capacity strained by attacks across the Middle East.
According to Rigzone: "energy prices have only one way to go", Hogan warned, barring a credible and lasting reopening of the strait.
Analysts split on how high prices go
Not everyone agrees with Hogan's call. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PRICE Futures Group, does not expect WTI to hit $100 soon, though he said Brent has a better chance of getting near that level. Flynn pointed to overwhelming American military pressure and a crumbling Iranian economy, arguing the regime is nearing collapse and that any sign the conflict is ending would pull prices down sharply.
Mariia Menahem, CEO of Clarity Global Inc, said Brent traded near $95.20 a barrel and WTI near $90.77 on Thursday, after Brent settled at $95.63 and WTI at $91.01 the day before. She called the pullback consolidation rather than a full unwinding of the geopolitical premium, and pointed to President Trump's warnings that the U.S. could strike Iran at any time as the reason traders remain focused on the safety of the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply tightens as demand starts to cool
U.S. crude inventories fell 4.5 million barrels last week, Menahem said, while global supply is expected to fall sharply in 2026 with reserves already drawn down materially. At the same time, she said global oil consumption is likely to weaken as high prices start to damage usage and trade activity, creating a tug-of-war between tight supply and softening demand.
Standard Chartered's energy research head, Emily Ashford, expects the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran to keep pushing oil prices gradually higher, punctuated by sharp corrections on positive headlines, and forecasts Brent averaging $85 a barrel through Q3. The bank expects the price to ease to an average of $77.50 a barrel in 2027 as Chinese demand returns and countries work to refill depleted strategic reserves.
Source: Rigzone
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