ICE Brent has bounced back to $87 a barrel, and another rally toward $100 is firmly on the table as Iranian loadings sit near zero in August. Fresh Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and a Saudi refinery, plus a hardened US stance on Iran, are adding to the geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian exports have all but stopped moving through Hormuz, raising the risk that Tehran halts transits through the strait completely.
Brent bounces toward $87 as Iranian loadings dry up
ICE Brent has bounced back to $87 per barrel, and another rally toward $100 per barrel is firmly on the table as Iranian loadings are close to zero in August, raising the risk of Tehran halting Hormuz transits completely.
Trump adds a compensation demand to Hormuz talks
The US president demanded compensation from Iran for deaths across decades of conflicts after Tehran sought payment for wartime damage, further complicating negotiations to reopen the strait despite progressing Iran-Oman talks.
Houthi attacks widen from shipping to a Saudi refinery
Three sailors were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while a Pakistani-flagged container ship was struck by a US helicopter missile in the Gulf of Oman. Days earlier, Yemen's Houthi militia attacked Aramco's 400,000-b/d Jazan refinery, a second successful strike in less than a month that will keep the plant shut until September.
China's stockpile drawdown could pull Iranian barrels back into demand
Shrinking crude inventories in China might spur a buying spree in the coming weeks, particularly for Russian and Iranian crude, after Shandong province stockpiles dropped 35 million barrels in July, equivalent to a 1.1 million-b/d draw. Not a single VLCC was seen loading in Iran in the first ten days of August, even as Iranian crude held in floating storage stayed around 40 million barrels, double the amount seen in early July.
ADNOC, meanwhile, has bought six VLCCs and five VLGCs for $1.3 billion to expand its shipping capacity as it navigates transits through the strait.
Source: Oilprice.com
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