Brazil's presidential campaign closes on Thursday with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a dead heat ahead of Sunday's first-round vote. A runoff on October 25 looks likely, and the latest poll puts the two within a point of each other. A banking fraud scandal reaching into both camps has renewed public anger over corruption in the race's final days.
Lula is expected to narrowly top Sunday's first round, which includes 13 candidates, but polls suggest he will fall short of the majority needed to avoid an October 25 runoff. That runoff would likely pit him against Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted last year of plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat.
Lula's early lead evaporates
His early lead has evaporated: most surveys now show Flavio Bolsonaro on equal footing, within the margin of error. A Tuesday poll from Atlas showed the two tied for the runoff, with Lula at 47.6% of voting intention against Flavio's 47.7%.
Despite falling inequality and unemployment during his term, Lula has struggled to convince voters to grant him a fourth non-consecutive term as they contend with a rising cost of living, heavy household debt and the growing power of gangs. As the race tightened, he rolled out a more generous welfare program, debt-relief measures for families and a crackdown on online betting.
Addressing hundreds of businessmen at a gathering last week, according to Reuters, Lula told the crowd: "I just want one vote."
Undecided voters now account for just 5% of the electorate, according to a Quaest poll published Monday.
Family controversies shadow both campaigns
Flavio has leaned on his father's enduring popularity among conservatives, even using an AI-generated avatar of Jair Bolsonaro to open his campaign in July — a move that stirred controversy because the former president is barred from public communication since his conviction. Lula, meanwhile, has struggled to distance his campaign from a federal police investigation into his son, Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, over accusations of influence peddling.
Violent crime has also dominated voter concerns, pushing candidates toward tougher security pledges; Flavio Bolsonaro has promised to build five supermax prisons modeled on those in El Salvador. Earlier this month, Lula and security officials unveiled new measures targeting criminal groups, calling for international cooperation rather than intervention and rejecting US statements labeling gangs as "terrorists."
Banco Master scandal reshapes the final stretch
A scandal involving the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil's political class and revived public anger over corruption ahead of the vote. Daniel Vorcaro, the bank's disgraced former head, was arrested earlier this year over an alleged multibillion-dollar fraud, and the ensuing investigation has tied figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Senator Bolsonaro himself, who is under investigation over money laundering tied to the case.
With new revelations surfacing almost daily, Bryan Harris, managing partner at political and corporate intelligence firm Sabio, said an 11th-hour bombshell still has the potential to upend the race completely.
Source: Investing.com
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