Boeing has generated positive free cash flow in three of its past four quarters, including $631 million last quarter, after six straight quarters of losses tied to the Alaska Airlines door blowout. Analysts now project free cash flow climbing to $15 billion by 2030, but the turnaround still hinges on fixing Spirit AeroSystems and raising production rates.
Boeing just booked its third positive free-cash-flow quarter in four, a sharp reversal from the $16.8 billion in negative free cash flow it burned through six straight losing quarters from early 2024 through mid-2025. That stretch, triggered by the Alaska Airlines door blowout, also cost the company $12.4 billion in GAAP losses. Now the company needs to make the recovery stick.
Production rates hold the key
By mid-2025, Boeing had stabilized its supply chain and resolved its quality-control problems, and Q2 2025 deliveries reached their highest quarterly level since 2018. The Federal Aviation Administration, which capped 737 output at 38 planes a month after the blowout, later raised that limit to 42. Boeing is now seeking approval to build 47 planes a month, with plans to reach 52 and eventually 63.
Analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast Boeing's free cash flow growing from more than $2.3 billion this year to $15 billion in 2030, a roughly 15% annual growth rate over that stretch. At that trajectory, the stock trades today at just 11 times its projected free cash flow five years out.
Spirit AeroSystems remains a drag
Boeing still needs to fix its Spirit AeroSystems subsidiary, the fuselage supplier responsible for the 737 that blew out over Oregon in 2024. The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing's $4.7 billion repurchase of Spirit last year will actually cost closer to $10.3 billion once debt and money-losing contract obligations are factored in. Fixing Spirit's quality issues is a precondition for the production increases the turnaround depends on, and will weigh on results in the near term.
Defense adds a second engine
Boeing's defense business has also returned to profitability, helped by a $131.2 billion contract to upgrade global F-15 fighter jet fleets. For that business to keep contributing, Boeing needs to avoid underbidding on large government contracts the way it did on the 2011 KC-X Tanker project, which is still generating losses. Boeing should also probably abandon its Starliner spacecraft program, which still isn't flying as SpaceX's Starship moves toward operation.
Sources: Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool
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