Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million. The asset manager cites institutional adoption and limited new supply, and projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate. Its bear case still puts bitcoin at $130,686 by 2036.
Crypto asset manager Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, projecting a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the period. The figure comes from the firm's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released Wednesday.
That growth rate represents around five times the 6.7% annual return forecast for U.S. equities and three times the 10.8% forecast for private equity, the next-best asset class. The comparison figures are based on average projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
How Bitwise builds the $1.6 million target
Bitwise estimates the future size of markets bitcoin could compete in, then assigns the cryptocurrency a share of each. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the firm kept its market-share assumptions unchanged but raised its 2036 estimate for the global store-of-value market from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and for the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
The base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036. The bull case reaches $3.67 million at a 50% share, while the bear case sits at $130,686 with just 2.5% of the store-of-value market.
On the supply side, Bitwise expects $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of demand, compared with just $14 billion in new bitcoin supply issuance via mining per year. The report noted that 20.1 million bitcoin, or 95.7% of the maximum supply of 21 million, is already in circulation.
A shallower drawdown than past cycles
The report arrives as the market debates whether bitcoin's June lows of around $58,000 mark the end of the latest bear cycle. The price has since rallied around 40% to above $80,000.
Bitwise noted that the approximate 53% drawdown from an October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 would represent a significantly shallower drop than prior cycles, which saw bitcoin fall 86%, 84%, and 77% after the record highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
The firm also expects average bitcoin volatility to fall to 27.8% over the next decade, compared with 32.9% in last year's report.
Hougan acknowledged that much of the recent demand for store-of-value assets had gone into gold rather than bitcoin. Even so, he said in a statement: "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year."
Source: The Block
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