Bitcoin traded near $86,000 on Monday after briefly touching $86,995, as a weak September jobs report offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields. Its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages are one crossover away from their first full bullish alignment since 2025, while Glassnode flagged the largest cluster of short positions sitting near $90,000.
Bitcoin traded above $85,000 on Monday, up around 1.1% at $85,929.4, after touching $86,995.4 earlier in the session. The move came as investors weighed a weak September jobs report against still-elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns.
U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, while payroll figures for the prior two months were revised lower. As a result, markets now price less than a 20% chance of an October rate hike, sharply lower than a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.
Treasury yields cap the rally
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 5.17% after the jobs data before rebounding to about 5.28%, keeping pressure on bitcoin and other risk assets. A firm dollar also limited bitcoin's upside. Still, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.7 million on Oct. 1 and $189.8 million on Oct. 2, providing a supportive backdrop.
A bullish moving-average alignment approaches
Bitcoin's 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages are one crossover away from their first full bullish alignment since 2025, when the 50-day sits above the 100-day and the 100-day sits above the 200-day. As of Monday, the 50-day average stood at $79,495, above the 100-day at $79,493 and the 200-day at $79,539.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk: "To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured". Similar alignments preceded bitcoin's climb from about $13,600 in October 2020 to a then-record above $64,000 by May 2021. But not every alignment pays off: the setup that formed in June 2024 lasted just 20 days before bitcoin fell about 10%.
A $90,000 short-liquidation cluster looms
Separately, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said on Oct. 4 that the largest cluster of leveraged short positions sits near $90,000, based on its liquidation heatmap. With bitcoin trading between $85,000 and $86,000, Glassnode said a push into that zone could trigger a wave of forced short closures, which would force traders to buy back bitcoin and could speed up the next directional move.
Glassnode noted that a prior band of shorts between $82,000 and $86,000 was largely cleared during August and September's rallies. If bitcoin stalls below $90,000, the firm said attention would likely shift toward smaller clusters near $83,000 and $75,000, leaving the downside path with its own volatility risk.
Sources: Cryptocurrency News, CoinDesk, Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
