Bitcoin touched $87,000 early Monday before reversing, with the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 now standing as resistance. A busy week of Fed minutes and bond-market moves will test whether the rally, which delivered a 42.6% third-quarter gain, can keep pushing toward $100,000.
Bitcoin regained $86,000 early Monday and briefly touched $87,000, nearing an eight-month high, before reversing course. Traders are watching dollar strength for clues on whether the move can extend or simply consolidate.
The token's 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are converging toward their first fully bullish alignment since 2025, a sign its three-month recovery remains structurally intact.
Bulls stall at the 2026 yearly open
Bitcoin sealed its highest weekly close since late January at $86,532 on Bitstamp, with brief wicks to $87,000 marking its fourth attempt to break higher since Sept. 21. Bulls have yet to reclaim the 2026 yearly open at $87,570, which now caps the market as the next hurdle.
Rates loom over the week ahead
A busy U.S. macro slate brings ISM Services PMI, FOMC meeting minutes, and jobless claims data from the Federal Reserve's September gathering. The 10-year yield stood at 5.25% Monday after touching 5.34% last week, its highest since 2002. Traders have also pared the odds of another October rate hike to 18% from 70% a week earlier, with the next CPI print due Oct. 14.
Third straight quarterly gain fuels $100,000 talk
Bitcoin closed the third quarter up 42.6% at $83,624, its best quarter since the final three months of 2024, when it gained 47.8%, snapping a run of three losing quarters. Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $3.1 billion over nine September sessions, according to Tesseract Group's Oliver Carding. A $149 million net outflow hit on Sept. 30, the first since Sept. 16. Since 2013, Bitcoin has gained an average of 18.7% in October, a pattern that would put the yearly target just under $100,000 if it holds.
Carding said a sustained move above a 10-year real yield of about 3% would make a retest of $80,000 to $82,000 more likely than a run at $90,000.
Sources: CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Finance Magnates
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