Bitcoin has climbed back near $86,000, reviving talk of a run to six figures. Analyst PlanB says the token could hit $100,000 in October, while Glassnode data shows a shallower drawdown and lighter profit-taking than in past cycles. Traders remain split on whether bitcoin's four-year cycle still points to one more low first.
Bitcoin Reclaims Its 365-Day Average
Bitcoin is back near $86,000, and the market is again debating whether the next major stop is six figures. PlanB, the analyst behind bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, outlined a scenario that would put BTC at $100,000 in October, above its previous $126,000 record before Christmas, and beyond $232,000 sometime in 2027 or 2028. He was careful to frame the path as "food for thought," not a prediction.
Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level historically associated with stronger market regimes. Prediction markets cited in the discussion now assign roughly a 40% chance of bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year.
The Four-Year Cycle Is Under Pressure
Not everyone agrees the recovery fits bitcoin's traditional market cycle. Analyst Layah Heilpern noted that BTC peaked on Oct. 6, 2025, roughly in line with the four-year cycle pattern, and that previous major bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after their peaks, which would place the next cyclical low between early October and mid-November. According to Heilpern: "[It] could be different this time, but it's not over until it's over."
Historical comparisons support the timing argument: the 2013 cycle took about 406 days to reach its final low, while the 2017 and 2021 cycles required roughly 364 and 376 days, respectively. Glassnode, however, sees a difference this time. Unlike previous downturns, which were more than twice as deep by this stage, bitcoin's price remains roughly 30% below its peak and is recovering.
Selling Stays Controlled, Glassnode Says
Onchain behavior is also less aggressive than at previous market tops. Glassnode data show net realized profit around levels last seen in late 2023, well below the heavy profit-taking seen in prior euphoric phases, and recent rallies have produced lighter selling than comparable moves during 2024 and 2025.
Short-term holders are largely back in profit, but realized gains remain contained, suggesting investors are distributing coins gradually rather than rushing for the exits. That is constructive for crypto markets as long as fresh demand keeps absorbing the supply.
Other roadmaps circulating among traders envision a more aggressive advance, including a potential peak near $190,000 early next year, followed by distribution and another bear-market phase — but those paths remain scenarios, not forecasts. The more immediate question is whether bitcoin can hold above its long-term moving average and convert the mid-$80,000 range into support.
Source: Bitcoin.com News
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