Bitcoin rebounded after President Trump said the US was holding productive talks with Iran and ruled out strikes before the midterm elections, easing geopolitical tensions and pulling oil prices, Treasury yields and the dollar lower. Traders now watch for Tehran's response to Washington's proposal and next week's US CPI report, either of which could extend or cap the recovery.
Bitcoin bounced back after Trump said on Truth Social that the US was holding productive discussions with Tehran and ruled out striking Iran before the midterm elections. The remarks eased geopolitical concern that had weighed on risk assets, triggering a pullback in oil prices, Treasury yields and the US dollar.
A weaker dollar added further support for Bitcoin. The move reflects improving risk sentiment from geopolitical de-escalation rather than a crypto-specific catalyst.
Markets turn to Iran's response and next week's CPI
Attention now shifts to Iran's response to Washington's proposal, which Foreign Minister Araghchi said could arrive within the next few days, and to next week's US CPI report. A positive outcome from Tehran could push oil prices lower, ease inflation and rate-hike concerns, and support a further recovery in Bitcoin. A negative response, however, likely wouldn't change much, though it could limit the upside.
The CPI report is another key catalyst. Hotter-than-expected data could trigger a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations and weigh on Bitcoin, while a soft report would likely give the cryptocurrency another boost.
Bitcoin tests resistance near the broken trendline
On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke below its major upward trendline and the 82,500 support as geopolitical tensions escalated in prior days, then pulled back to retest that level as resistance after Trump ruled out the Iran strikes. Sellers may step in around the 82,500 resistance for a drop toward the 76,000 support, while buyers need a close back above that level to position for a rally toward 90,000.
The one-hour chart shows a swing low near 81,500 that could act as support if the price is rejected at resistance, with sellers looking for a break lower to build bearish bets toward the 76,000 support.
Source: investingLive
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