Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August, putting it on track to break a pattern that has held since 2013. Rising bond yields, oil above $90 a barrel and a pullback in gold form the backdrop, with a potential Anthropic IPO and the U.S. midterm elections as further tests for liquidity and risk appetite in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin is on track to snap a decade-long pattern: every positive August since 2013 has been followed by a negative September. With two calendar days left in the month, a positive close would break that streak and hand bitcoin three straight monthly gains, from July through September.
A positive September would also leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025. Bitcoin is trading at $84,000, but the macro backdrop is volatile. The U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year-to-date highs.
Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns. Gold, meanwhile, fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce. The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin's strongest, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%.
Anthropic's reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing, though the offering's timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.
Source: CoinDesk
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