Hilbert Group's Jesse Marre says Bitcoin must hold above $75,500 to preserve the bullish market structure built since its summer lows. Tight liquidity, rising oil prices and a Federal Reserve decision on October 28 frame the test.
Bitcoin must hold above $75,500 to keep the bullish structure in place, according to Jesse Marre, senior portfolio manager at Hilbert Group. His call follows a week in which Bitcoin lost 5.4% after five consecutive daily declines.
Last week started with Bitcoin near $84,800 and fell to a weekend low of approximately $79,200 as equities sold off and oil prices rose.
Key levels for Bitcoin
Marre sees immediate support between $78,500 and $79,500, where Bitcoin is testing a trend line. However, he called $75,500 the more important threshold, because a break below it could reverse the recovery since the summer.
On the upside, reclaiming $81,400 would return Bitcoin to its near term consolidation range. A move above $85,000 and $87,500 could open the way toward $95,000 to $98,000.
ETF flows hold up as options show caution
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $442 million in net inflows over the week, according to Hilbert Group. Thursday alone brought $635 million in withdrawals, and Marre said inflows concentrated early in the week before investors withdrew funds during the selloff.
Options markets showed demand for downside protection. Five delta put options traded at 44% implied volatility against 38% for equivalent calls, while Deribit's DVol index rose slightly to 38.
Hilbert's global liquidity index stood at 3.06, and its six factor liquidity model recorded a weekly Z score decline of 0.47. Marre said Bitcoin will trade heavy when markets have "constrained liquidity and free cash being drained out of the system".
Oil, AI stocks and the Fed
Marre attributed much of the weakness to broader markets. Brent crude climbed toward $117 per barrel amid speculation that President Donald Trump was preparing another military offensive against Iran, then retreated below $114 after Trump said no immediate offensive was planned.
Concerns about AI valuations also triggered selling in technology stocks. Nvidia declined approximately 8% over the week and Meta fell 9%, according to Hilbert's report, while the Nasdaq Composite ended down roughly 2%.
Marre expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged on October 28 while keeping a hawkish outlook. A recovery above $87,500 would strengthen his outlook for a move toward $95,000 to $98,000, provided broader market conditions improve.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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