Bitcoin is up 26% since SpaceX's June IPO, even as Anthropic's filing renews talk of capital leaving crypto. Macro conditions are tighter than they were in June.
A day after Anthropic filed for an IPO, bitcoin was essentially unchanged, trading near $80,000. The dominant narrative is that the IPO will attract capital that might otherwise flow into bitcoin.
Yet BTC is down more than 5% in the last month.
Bitcoin rallied after the SpaceX debut
Bitcoin fell before the SpaceX IPO, briefly bounced after trading began, and then hit new lows on June 30, closing near $58,500. From that low it has risen about 37%, gaining roughly 26% since the IPO.
SpaceX shares, by contrast, have fallen 9% since their market debut, though they remain 9% above the IPO price. Before the IPO, bitcoin was also affected by ETF outflows, Strategy's bitcoin sale, and liquidations of long positions.
Exchanges offer synthetic Anthropic exposure
Crypto traders have priced Anthropic's potential IPO at nearly $1.9 trillion. Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands near $1.6 trillion.
Exchanges are again listing pre-IPO perpetual futures, contracts that track a company's expected share price without involving actual shares, as they did before the SpaceX IPO.
Macro backdrop is tighter than in June
The Fed raised rates in September, although bitcoin rallied afterward. On Wednesday, Oct. 28, the Fed will announce its next decision, with markets largely expecting rates to remain unchanged.
Meanwhile, September inflation rose again to 3.7%, driven largely by energy prices. October also brought new reports of possible attacks on Iran, while Brent crude surged above $116 per barrel.
Nik Bhatia, founder of The Bitcoin Layer, argued that Anthropic's filing shows companies scrambling for liquidity before funding windows narrow. According to Bhatia: "These are some red flags that I believe valuations are starting to come down".
Source: Bitcoin News
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