Bitcoin's last three cycle lows came 13 to 71 days after a U.S. midterm election, and Americans vote again on Tuesday. Polymarket gives a Democratic sweep 72% odds, while Grayscale argues the vote will not decide much for crypto.
Bitcoin's cycle bottoms have followed the last three U.S. midterms by 13 to 71 days, and Americans vote again on Tuesday. If the pattern repeats, the next low could land between mid-November 2026 and January 2027.
Three midterms, three lows
The 2014 low arrived 71 days after the vote, the 2018 low 39 days later, and the 2022 low just 13 days later. Counting from Tuesday's vote on Nov. 3, those gaps point to a low somewhere between mid-November 2026 and mid-January 2027.
Analyst Ali Martinez found that bitcoin fell after four straight midterms: 72% after 2010, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022.
Bitcoin enters the vote on weak footing
Bitcoin heads into the vote after its worst October finish since 2014, and a $6.3 billion Binance hack added pressure. BTC is trading near $78,500.
Meanwhile, Polymarket's balance of power market prices Democrats winning both the House and the Senate at 72%, with more than $51 million wagered on the contract. On Kalshi, the Democratic sweep matched its all-time high at 70%.
A Democratic sweep would change the outlook for pending market structure legislation. Grayscale disagrees that the vote will decide much: in an Oct. 28 note, Head of Research Zach Pandl estimated the U.S. accounts for only 15-20% of global crypto activity. Binance's delayed proof of reserves is also due on Tuesday.
Lows have preceded rebounds
According to Cryptoquant data, bitcoin lost more than 60% in each of the last three midterm years. It then averaged gains of over 50% in the 12 months after the vote.
Traders disagree on what comes next. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, who had been bearish, publicly said "I was wrong" after bitcoin held $77,000 in the days after the Binance hack. Macro analyst Henrik Zeberg, however, called the current move a likely rally that could reach $115,000 before the bear market resumes.
Three data points do not prove a rule, and the midterm gaps also line up with bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. If BTC holds up through mid-January 2027, the pattern breaks.
Source: Bitcoin News
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