Bitcoin has closed the entire three-month performance gap it had opened against the S&P 500, powered by a sharp multi-day rally. The move has also lifted the odds traders assign to Bitcoin ending 2026 above $90,000, even as technical indicators flash overbought.
Bitcoin has erased the performance gap it had opened against the S&P 500 over the past three months. Glassnode's session rewind chart showed the BTC-to-S&P 500 relative-performance ratio decline from around 3x to nearly 2.2x over that period. Bitcoin's rally over the latest four trading sessions then pushed that ratio back up to approximately 2.82x, even though the S&P 500 is still up around 20% from the chart's September 2025 starting point.
What pushed Bitcoin to close the gap
Bitcoin's price action rallied from $62,000 to around $78,000 in a few days, driving the catch-up move.
An ETF rebound also contributed. Bitcoin funds recorded $1.92 billion in inflows over the past week, alongside expectations around U.S. crypto legislation and Treasury actions that helped calm bond-market stress.
However, this does not mean Bitcoin's underperformance is permanently over or that a new bull market is guaranteed. The rally has pushed the RSI index into overbought territory, and, as the pattern has been, every prior race to overbought or oversold territory has called for a pullback — so it might happen again.
Traders eye $90,000 into year-end
The Kobeissi Letter has predicted that the probability of Bitcoin finishing 2026 above $90,000 has reportedly jumped from 12% to 48% in just three days. That shift coincided with $3.5 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency positions getting liquidated between the 20th and 21st of August.
AMBCrypto's own analysis found Bitcoin's rebound has strengthened its bullish structure, with strong support between $61,849 and $63,111 and limited overhead supply above $75,733. A break above that level could open the path toward the $83,307–$84,569 supply cluster, where another major supply cluster sits.
Source: AMBCrypto
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