Bitcoin is stuck between two large liquidation zones near $76,000 and $82,000 as the Federal Reserve's rate decision approaches. Bitfinex analysts say leverage has built up on both sides of the range, and falling spot selling could favor a break to the upside — though a drop below $76,000 risks a cascade of forced long liquidations.
Bitcoin traded near $79,100 at the time of writing, caught between two liquidation clusters that have formed over a month-long trading range. Bitfinex analysts said in their latest Bitcoin market report that leverage has accumulated on both sides of the range, leaving the asset vulnerable to a sharp move once the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision.
Short and long positions cluster at opposite ends
Short positioning above $82,000 has risen 43%, creating a liquidation pool worth as much as $1.95 billion if Bitcoin breaks through the range ceiling. Bitfinex described this upper zone as a limited group of positions concentrated near the $82,000 strike, making it a more defined target during a sudden rally.
Below the market, leveraged long positions have built up between $75,000 and $76,000. Unlike the upper cluster, this pool is spread more evenly across price levels, but a sustained decline beneath the range floor could still force traders to close positions and deepen the fall.
According to crypto.news, Bitfinex analysts said the Fed decision could produce enough volatility to test both boundaries: "it would not be surprising to see both zones tested."
Falling spot selling may favor a breakout
Spot-market selling pressure has fallen close to its lowest level in the past year, and profit-taking by long-term holders has declined sharply since August. Fewer coins available near the top of the range could mean less resistance if buyers push above $82,000, while short sellers would need to repurchase Bitcoin to close their positions.
Institutional demand has also supported the recent consolidation. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $986.7 million in net inflows during the week ending Sept. 4, led by BlackRock's roughly $691.5 million, bringing cumulative net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to about $55.69 billion.
Even so, the analysts did not treat reduced selling as proof Bitcoin must move higher — the long-liquidation cluster below $76,000 remains large enough to deepen a downside break.
Weak trend strength adds to the caution
Separately, Bitcoin's short-term chart shows momentum losing conviction even as price pushes higher. The five-hour chart closed at $79,109, up more than 2% from the last swing low, with the ADX reading at 16.67, below the 20-level threshold typically associated with a strong trend.
Price also traded 2.3% above its 20-period moving average, a level of overextension that has coincided with bull traps in the range before. The $78,500–$80,000 band has seen both false breakouts and sharp reversals cluster in the past, keeping traders cautious about chasing the move.
Fed projections may outweigh the rate decision itself
Bitfinex analysts said the Fed's economic projections, published alongside Wednesday's decision, could carry more weight for Bitcoin than the rate move itself, since markets already assign high odds to an increase. The 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield stood at 2.55%, a level the analysts said has helped hold Bitcoin around the upper-$70,000 region.
The analysts also identified energy costs as another source of pressure on Bitcoin, since higher rates would tighten liquidity without adding oil supply, meaning an energy shock and the policy response could press in the same direction for a while.
Sources: crypto.news, Investing.com
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