Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before climbing toward $300,000 in its 2029 cycle peak, pointing to a shrinking drawdown this cycle as institutional buyers step in. The Wall Street research firm also trimmed its price target on Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, even as it kept an "Outperform" rating on the stock.
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases, according to a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph. The firm expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its 2025 high, and set new records heading into the peak of its historical cycle.
A smaller drawdown than past cycles
Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound Bernstein said could signal the end of the current bear cycle. Institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers now play a bigger role in the market, which Bernstein said provided greater downside support and produced a smaller drawdown than the 75% to 90% declines of previous market cycles.
The move also comes as seven straight U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF sessions added $2.5697 billion in net inflows through Aug. 25, according to CryptoSlate, with BlackRock's IBIT supplying about 90.5% of the latest session's total.
Next cycle could see $300,000
Bernstein's base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts Bitcoin at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. The firm maintained its longer-term target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios. Bernstein bases the forecast on Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles, which it links to the halving, the event that cuts new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years.
Strategy's outlook tied to Bitcoin's recovery
Bernstein also expects a Bitcoin recovery to improve the outlook for Strategy, which holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4% of Bitcoin's maximum 21-million-coin supply. The analysts kept their "Outperform" rating on Strategy but cut its MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and the firm's updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. Bernstein said continued Bitcoin strength, combined with a recovery in Strategy's STRC preferred stock toward $100, could let the company resume Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026.
Sources: Cointelegraph, CryptoSlate
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