Arthur Hayes says the AI data center boom is overbuilt and will end the way every major tech rollout has: with a crash, then a bailout. He expects crypto to absorb the liquidity that follows, and points to Anthropic's own financials as backing for his view that the AI firms driving compute demand don't turn a profit.
Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and co-founder of crypto investment firm Maelstrom, told CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore that humanity is building AI data centers at a wasteful pace. His bet: the overbuilding ends in a crash and a bailout, and Bitcoin and other crypto absorb the money that follows.
Overbuilt, then bailed out
Hayes argued the buildout will leave computing power extremely cheap and extremely plentiful. He pointed to financial history, noting that every major technological rollout gets overbuilt, then crashes, then gets bailed out — citing the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and other episodes since. According to CNBC: "wasting multi-trillion dollars" is how Hayes described the current AI spending.
He named SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic as among the end users driving demand for computing power, claiming none of them turns a profit.
Anthropic's numbers back the thesis
Hayes's contention lines up with Anthropic's own prospectus ahead of a possible IPO, which showed $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue, up from $400 million, against net losses near $42 billion, including a $34 billion noncash charge. Compute and infrastructure cost $7.33 billion, more than half of $12.65 billion in total operating expenses.
His contention is backed by these numbers, which show one of the firms he named still posting large net losses even as its revenue grows.
When the reckoning comes
Hayes expects data center operators to come calling once construction wraps up, seeking payment for the compute that Anthropic and other AI firms have already committed to. He puts that reckoning in late 2027 or 2028, when he expects the bailout dynamic to kick in and crypto to catch the resulting liquidity.
Source: CryptoPotato
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
