Apple stock has turned into the Nasdaq-100's hedge, moving opposite its tech peers to a degree not seen since 2005. Shares rose 2.6% Tuesday during a broader tech rout, and options traders appear to think the divergence is sustainable.
Apple's 30-day correlation to the Nasdaq-100 Index, where it carries a 7.5% weighting, fell to a low of negative 0.86 on Thursday and sits at -0.82 now. That is the most inverted reading in 20 years, according to a CNBC analysis using ThinkOrSwim data. In the past month, Apple shares are up 7% versus a 1% gain for the Nasdaq-100.
The stock has drifted inversely to the Nasdaq before, but never for this long or this severely. The only comparable stretch came in the first quarter of 2024, when the correlation was nearly as inverted — though Apple was selling off at the time as investors rotated into leading AI disruptors. This time, the pattern has flipped: Apple is climbing while AI-linked names slide.
Traders bet on a hedge, not a peer
Dave Mazza, chief executive officer at Roundhill Investments, who runs an Apple ETF that uses swaps to generate weekly income, described the shift. According to CNBC: “It has become the hedge inside the Nasdaq.”
Options positioning backs that read. Almost 1.5 million calls traded in Tuesday's session, compared with fewer than 700,000 puts. Meanwhile, 543,000 calls were likely initiated by buyers versus under 220,000 put-buyers, per ThinkOrSwim data. Net delta exposure skewed strongly bullish, according to flows analysis on Barchart.
A wider gap after a slow start
Volume underscored the positioning: Apple options were the second-most traded contracts Tuesday, on volume about twice the 30-day average, per SpotGamma and Cboe LiveVol data. After lagging the Nasdaq for the first six months of the year, Apple is now up 20% against the index's 15% return. Over the past three years, the two remain close, with the Nasdaq up 90% compared with Apple's 82% advance.
Source: CNBC
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