Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, with John Ternus holding his first call as CEO. Options pricing implies a larger move than the recent median, while analysts expect revenue of $113.39 billion.
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, and new CEO John Ternus is expected to address Wall Street in a meaningful way for the first time. Analysts polled by LSEG expect EPS of $1.99 and revenue of $113.39 billion.
Analysts expect 11% revenue growth
That revenue figure would rise 11% from $102.5 billion a year earlier, and analysts project $56.59 billion in iPhone sales. The report will include eight days of new iPhone 18 Pro sales, but the iPhone Duo did not reach store shelves until the quarter was over.
Apple also raised prices on iPhones by $100, which may have hurt demand in the quarter.
Options imply a move above the recent median
However, the options market is pricing a larger move than usual. CNBC's options analysis puts the implied move for Apple by the end of the week at less than $16.50, or under 4.8% of the current stock price. That compares with a 3.25% median move over the last four quarters.
The same analysis notes that AAPL trades at a more than 40% premium to Amazon on a forward P/E basis, and at a 60% premium to Alphabet.
Analysts point to margins and memory costs
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan said his team has a "conservative outlook" because of gross margin concerns and price increases. Apple reported a gross margin of 49.3% in its June quarter but warned of 47.5% to 48% for the September period.
Barclays, which holds an underweight rating, wrote in an earnings preview that it will remain cautious on the stock given iPhone uncertainties this cycle.
Memory costs add pressure. IDC says the smartphone market is set to drop nearly 17% this year based on shipments, and Apple has raised prices on almost all of its products. Even so, Apple shares are up 27% this year as of Friday's close.
Investors will get their first in-depth look at Ternus on Monday.
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