Gold: Bearish Reversal Pattern Still in Play, But Primary Trend Remains Bullish

Welcome to another Daily Technical Update on Gold.

We’re starting with the 4-hour chart, continuing our analysis on the potential head and shoulders top formation that’s been developing over the past few sessions.

Yesterday, price moved down toward the neckline of this possible structure. Although there was brief price action below the neckline, it was followed by a large wick and only a small-bodied candle closing below, which may suggest a potential fakeout rather than a confirmed breakdown.

With the current move back up, price is now retesting previous structure, and we may be forming the right shoulder of the pattern. Even a swing top at current levels would qualify, but we could also see an extension higher toward:

• The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, or
• The $3,412 level, previously marked as the latest swing low

While this bearish reversal structure remains valid, it’s important to remain cautious: Gold’s primary trend is still bullish, and this could still evolve into a consolidation or continuation depending on upcoming price action.

Let’s now dive into the lower timeframes to identify intraday levels worth watching for potential breakouts, failures, or short-term trade setups.

15-Minute Chart – New Range Forming With Key Breakout Zones

Looking at the 15-minute timeframe, we’re starting to see the development of a potential new short-term range for Gold.

• Range Highs: ~$3,360
• Range EQ: ~$3,330
• Range Lows: ~$3,300 – also acting as the major support zone discussed in the 4-hour chart

In addition to this broader range, we’ve also identified two key intraday levels closer to current price:

• Support: ~$3,320
• Resistance: ~$3,338

A break below $3,320 could open the door for a move back down to fill the gap near $3,300, which would line up with the range lows and major support from higher timeframes.

On the flip side, a break above the $3,340–$3,350 zone could signal a short-term breakout, potentially driving price toward the $3,410 area—the latest swing low level marked on the 4-hour chart and a clear short-term upside target.

These are the critical levels to monitor going into today’s trading session.

Good luck out there—and as always, manage your risk accordingly.

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