5 min readBitcoin is rising marginally on Friday but struggles to push higher after a lower close on Wall Street overnight. The largest cryptocurrency trades flat across the week.
Nvidia, the AI bellwether, fell on Thursday despite strong earnings, pulling the NASDAQ over 1% lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average was almost unchanged across the session.
Bitcoin continues to trade around 50% lower from its 126k record high in October. Still, interestingly, this weakness comes even as global money supply surged to a fresh all-time high, reinforcing a liquidity black drop that has historically supported the cryptocurrency.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, liquidity has continued to expand at a rapid pace, rising to a record $144 trillion in December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, or $13.6 trillion in monetary terms. December was also the third consecutive month of accelerated growth.
When global money supply hits an all-time high, the expectation is typically that more liquidity will increase hard asset prices.
While hard asset Gold is behaving as expected, Bitcoin is not. The precious metal has traded in patterns typical of a bull market, with short-lived pullbacks attracting renewed buying interest. However, there is a key difference between gold and Bitcoin: gold is just hard money, whereas Bitcoin has a dual identity, serving as both hard currency and a speculative asset.
When the speculative component of the market turns negative, it can quickly override the liquidity tailwind that would otherwise support BTC. Conditions are currently characterised by expanding liquidity and bear-market speculation. As a result, BTC struggles while Gold and the money supply surge.
Solana consolidates as rising ETF demand meets on-chain intention to sell
Solana continues to trade in a consolidation pattern. Institution sentiment seems to be improving. However, on-chain data tells a different story, as active network investors are reducing exposure.
SOL ETFs recorded a twelfth straight day of inflows on Thursday. Net inflows are on track to reach $43 million this week, the third straight week of gains and the fifth consecutive month of net inflows. This points to optimism amid institutional investors regarding the outlook for SOL. However, this activity alone is not driving a breakout in SOL.
Meanwhile, on-chain data indicate some investors are selling. Over the last 3 weeks, 3.9 million SOL have moved to exchanges, which often indicates an intention to sell. This suggests that holders remain sceptical and reduces the likelihood of an upside price breakout.
SOL technical analysis
SOL/USDT has fallen sharply from its 250 September high, dropping to a low of 67.00 in early February before recovering to consolidate between the 75-90 region. The price is holding above the 20 SMA. Should this support hold, buyers will look to break out of the upside of the holding pattern at 90, to bring 100 into focus ahead of the 50 SMA at 107.
However, the longer-term trend remains bearish. Sellers will look to break below 75 to open the door to 67, the 2026 low. A break below here could spur a deeper selloff towards 50.00.
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